Long9 Studio

Top Concern Among Voters in Nearly Every Demographic: Cost-of-Living—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 79

Which is scarier? A baby shark, someone dressed as garbage man Trump, or a bunch of political junkies? You’ll have to tune in to this week’s Smoke-Filled Room to find out!
With just 4 days until Election Day, we have a lot to cover so we get right into the biggest topics with host Collin Corbett, Safe Suburbs USA President Kevin Coyne, political consultants Deb Detmers and Jim Thacker, and Cor’s political experts Michael Butler and Chris Jackowiak. 
On both a national and state level, we’re seeing Democrats tempering expectations. Harris’ campaign has become garbage, and in Illinois, Democrats are now expecting to win fewer seats and House Republicans are claiming they will pick up four seats.
After our special “one week to go” Smoke-Filled Room from earlier this week, we got numerous texts, emails, and comments from viewers sharing their reactions to our picks and predictions. We share and discuss the races in HD112, HD97, HD104, HD52, HD81, 3rd Appellate District, and Chicagoland State’s Attorney races.
One Week to Go SFR: https://youtu.be/92r-oCsetgk
Then, Collin releases brand new results from EmpowerToWin’s Quarterly Tracking Poll which show cost-of-living is still the top concern for Illinois voters (and we’re still not talking about it enough) and some movement among emotionally charged issues. Get the full poll results and analysis on EmpowerToWin here: https://empowerto.win/plans/
We close this week’s Smoke-Filled Room talking about Pritzker doubling his efforts to pass abortion amendments nationwide, the ineffectiveness of state Democrats’ efforts despite having all the money, and our permanent clown of the week, Brandon Johnson.
00:00: Introductions03:09: 2024 Presidential Election Comes Down to Who Is and Isn't "Garbage"13:37: As Illinois Democrats Start Tempering Expectations, House GOP Says They'll Pick Up 4 Seats19:52: Audience Reaction: Republicans All In for Jay Keevin in HD11225:50: Audience Reaction: Gabby Shanahan in HD97 GOP's 2nd Best Pickup Opportunity27:35: Audience Reaction: Why Is INCS Action Sending Texts Against Brandun Schweizer in HD104?32:10: Audience Reaction: Marty McLaughlin Frustrating in HD52, But He'll Be Fine39:27: Audience Reaction: Aaron Porter Will Surprise in HD8142:12: Audience Reaction: "Win with Skarin," Though 3rd Appellate District Dem Turnout is Concerning45:37: Audience Reaction: Chicagoland State's Attorney Races Need Even More Attention48:56: Audience Reaction: Collin Is Smarter Than Chris and Michael51:14: EmpowerToWin Poll: Cost-of-Living Is Yet Again the Top Concern for Illinois Voters01:04:02: EmpowerToWin Poll: Emotionally Charged Election Making Some Emotional Issues Play More01:12:49: Pritzker Doubles National Support for Abortion Amendments01:18:01: They May Have the Money, but That Doesn't Automatically Make Illinois Dems More Effective01:24:17: Brandon Johnson Continues to Find Ways to Become Less Popular01:28:02: OG & Clown of the Week01:32:49: Closing Thoughts

Our Election Predictions with One Week to Go—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 78

Sound the alarm—we are just 7 days from Election Day!
Where do you think the top races will end up for Republicans in Illinois? In this special Smoke-Filled Room, we analyze the top 17 races and predict where we think they’ll end.
Host Collin Corbett and Cor’s political experts Chris Jackowiak and Michael Butler discuss the 11 top House races, the main Senate race, Eric Sorensen vs Joe McGraw in IL-17, 3 of the top suburban county races, and the main competitive race for the 3rd District Appellate Court.
Then, we put our picks and predictions on tape by giving our 3 “locks” or candidates we expect to win, a candidate we believe will overperform on election night, a candidate we expect will underperform, and a surprise pick in one of the lower tiered races that politicos should keep an eye on.
Plus, we have Abbey Corbett joining us as our very own Vanna White to help us fill out our boards for the top races and predictions.00:00: Introduction03:34: HD114: Kevin Schmidt v LaToya Greenwood07:42: HD104: Brandun Schweizer v Jarrett Clem12:09: HD47: Amy Grant v Jackie Williamson15:05: HD52: Marty McLaughlin v Maria Peterson18:10: HD45: Dennis Reboletti v Marti Dueter22:06: HD112: Katie Stuart v Jay Keeven27:04: HD51: Nabeela Syed v Tosi Ufodike31:18: HD76: Liz Bishop v Amy Briel34:14: HD97: Harry Benton v Gabby Shanahan36:41: HD91: Sharon Chung v Desi Anderson39:38: HD79: Jackie Haas v Billy Morgan42:17: SD40: Patrick Joyce v Philip Nagel44:43: IL-17: Eric Sorensen v Joe McGraw46:55: Lake County State’s Attorney: Eric Rinehart v Mary Cole49:01: DuPage County Auditor: Bob White v Bob Grogan52:01: Will County Clerk: Michelle Stiff v Annette Parker54:26: 3rd District Appellate: John Anderson v Kenton Skarin59:06: Election Day Predictions01:12:56: Closing Thoughts
 
 

Our audience predicts IL Republicans will lose seats. Do you agree?—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 77

When you’re less than 2 weeks out from Election Day, you’re in silly season. And one of our guests had a great line: “If you just came up with a new idea, don’t use it, it’s stupid.” Democrats are losing steam and Republicans need to stay on message these final few days to win.
Joining us in the Smoke-Filled Room this week are former Illinois Comptroller and Deputy Governor Leslie Munger, longtime government operative in the US Senate and IL House Kevin Artl, Director of the Illinois Freedom Caucus Collin Moseley, Cor’s political experts Chris Jackowiak and Michael Butler, and host Collin Corbett.
Earlier this week, we asked our audience to send in their predictions for our panel to debate and we got a ton of responses. Many believe Republicans will do well nationally, but they are more pessimistic about our chances in Illinois.
Later, Collin Moseley shares insight from what he’s been hearing in HD47 with Amy Grant, Leslie talks about Jim Carris in IL-10 and how State’s Attorney candidate Mary Cole is the key to Republicans doing well in Lake County, and Kevin gives some advice to candidates about being effective when outside noise will be trying to distract you and take you off your message.
We close talking about the Chicago School Board races, Illinois Democrats campaigning in other states, Republicans gaining with Latinos, and how Republicans are still struggling to focus on cost-of-living.
00:00: Introductions03:40: Audience Prediction: Republicans Take the White House and Senate, Split on the House11:05: Audience Prediction: Lots of Surprises Due to Lack of Excitement for Harris17:50: Audience Prediction: Female Illinois Republican Candidates Will Win24:45: Audience Prediction: House Republicans Will Lose More Seats31:39: Schweizer Fights Back on Threat to Democracy Attacks from Opponent in HD10437:54: Are Republicans Giving Up on Amy Grant in HD47?44:45: Jim Carris Running Strong Campaign Against Brad Schneider in IL-1051:05: Lake County State's Attorney Race Key to Republican Chances in Lake County54:37: We're Officially in Campaign Silly Season01:02:52: Why Talk Cost-of-Living When You Can Talk Corruption, Abortion, and Sex Changes for Kids?01:09:38: Who Wins Chicago School Board Races?01:12:33: Will Illinois Democrats Regret Focusing on Campaigning in Other States?01:17:48: Republicans Gaining with Latinos Despite Lackluster Outreach Effort01:26:46: OG & Clown of the Week01:32:40: Closing Thoughts

Democrats Are Trying to Knock Republicans Off Our Message—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 76

We’re in GOTV season—this is the final stretch! We have a lot to get into on this week’s Smoke-Filled Room.
Joining us from one of the most important hold districts for Republicans is State Representative Brandun Schweizer, along with former State Representative Tom Morrison, IL GOP Co-Chairman Aaron Del Mar, Cor’s political experts Michael Butler and Chris Jackowiak, and host Collin Corbett.
Unlike us politicos who follow every move of political campaigns, most voters are just now starting to pay attention with early voting fully opening next week. Kamala Harris’ momentum is subsiding at the right time for Republicans. Will we take advantage? We discuss.
We then cover a wide range of races throughout the state. Brandun Schweizer talks to us about his opponent and the lies the Democrats are spreading in an effort to win his seat. It’s the same playbook Democrats are using in many other races. Then we cover 3 races Republicans are paying close attention to: Joe McGraw in IL-17, who is showing real momentum, Gabby Shanahan in HD97, whose opponent can’t stop exposing his own hypocrisy, and Aaron Porter in HD81, who is talking to voters about real issues like cost-of-living while his opponent is trying to hide her crazy.
Plus we talk about endorsements by the Daily Herald and IEA PAC, broadcast TV ads against GOP candidates, and the latest fundraising reports. And Collin gets on his soapbox and explains to Republican campaigns the importance of not burying the lede when talking to voters. 
00:00:00-00:01:43: Introductions00:01:43-00:14:59: As Harris' Momentum Wanes, Can Republicans Take Advantage?00:14:59-00:24:15: Brandun Schweizer Pushing Hard in 2nd Toughest Hold Seat for Republicans (HD104)00:24:15-00:28:47: Joe McGraw Showing Momentum in IL-17, but Sorensen Not Going Down Without a Fight00:28:47-00:34:26: Hypocrite Harry Caught Again in HD97 Race Against Gabby Shanahan00:34:26-00:42:05: Is the HD81 Race Between Aaron Porter and Anne Stava-Murray in Play?00:42:05-00:45:58: Grant (HD47), McLaughlin (HD52), and Reboletti (HD45) Headline Daily Herald Endorsements00:45:58-00:51:48: IEA's PAC Endorses Haas (HD79), Sanalitro (HD48), & Schmidt (HD114) While Staying Out of HD4500:51:48-01:03:11: Broadcast TV Ads Against Schmidt (HD114), Reboletti (HD45), and Keeven (HD112) First of Many01:03:11-01:13:18: Individual GOP Candidates Doing Well in Fundraising, But Dems Have Massive Cash Advantage01:13:18-01:22:00: Republicans Continue to Bury the Lede in Voter Outreach, Hurting Our Effectiveness01:22:00-01:29:52: Unions Gearing Up for Big Fight Next Year to Increase Pensions01:29:52-01:34:06: OG & Clown of the Week01:34:06: Closing Thoughts

Working Families Can’t Afford to Elect Democrats—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 75

The theme of this week’s episode: working families can’t afford to elect Democrats in Illinois. It’s a straightforward message we need to yell from the rooftops in these final weeks.
Sharing their expertise on energy, the Chicago Public Schools disaster, and the latest from campaigns around the state include State Representative Paul Jacobs, former House Republican Leader Mark Batinick, The Illinoize’s Patrick Pfingsten, Cor’s political experts Michael Butler and Chris Jackowiak, and host Collin Corbett.
There have been topics related to energy that Collin has wanted to cover for weeks, so we start there. Energy costs are rising while reliability is decreasing. Who’s to blame? Pritzker and the Illinois Democrats. Now we’re importing less clean energy from other states, costs are rising for working families and small businesses, and the reliability of our grid is in jeopardy. And as Pritzker courts energy-thirsty industries to Illinois, these problems are only going to get worse.
We then discuss Brandon Johnson’s problems with Chicago Public Schools—the school board has resigned, funding is not adding up, and even the progressives in Chicago are coming after him. Johnson can’t figure out how to have a good week. 
Later we talk about how Republicans need to stay consistent with a message on cost-of-living as voters are just now starting to pay attention. Our plea to Republicans: don’t get dragged off message on Madigan or voter integrity. The only thing that should be in press releases, mailings, and voter outreach should be the unaffordable cost-of-living in Illinois thanks to Democrats.
We close out the episode talking about some key races. Can Phillip Nagel seal the deal in SD40 and take down Patrick Joyce? Mudslinging in HD114 is ramping up between Kevin Schmidt and LaToya Greenwood. Republicans are pouring money into HD82 to make sure Nicole La Ha is reelected. And there’s a potential pickup for Republicans in Illinois’ 3rd Appellate Court District. Plus much more!
00:00: Introductions02:18: Thanks to Pritzker and IL Democrats, Energy Costs Going Up and Reliability Going Down11:52: Pritzker Pushing Energy-Thirsty Industries While Reducing Our Energy Supply21:32: Brandon Johnson Forces Mass Resignation of Chicago Public Schools Board34:36: With Madigan Trial Starting, Will Republicans Take the Bait?45:44: Instead of Cost-of-Living, Now McCombie Wants to Talk Voter Integrity52:49: Democrats Good at Finding Issues That "Make People's Lives Better"56:52: GOP Poll Claims Nagel Only 3 Points Behind Joyce in SD4001:06:51: Hits Flying Between Kevin Schmidt and Latoya Greenwood in HD11401:14:27: Republicans Spending a Lot on Nicole La Ha in HD8201:22:58: Desi Anderson (HD91) Learns Accusations of Racism Only Work if You're a Democrat01:27:36: Republicans Have Pickup Opportunity in 3rd District Appellate Court01:34:30: OG & Clown of the Week01:41:43: Closing Thoughts

Republicans: Talk About Cost of Living If You Want to Win—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 74

As we close in on Election Day, we’re talking about issues, strategies, and tactics that could help Republicans across the state keep or flip some key races at every level.
Our SFR host Collin Corbett is joined by State Senator Steve McClure, IL GOP National Committeewoman Rhonda Belford, attorney Robert Windon, and Cor’s political experts Chris Jackowiak and Michael Butler.
The vice presidential debate this week highlighted a major challenge for the Trump campaign and time is running out. While Vance clearly won the debate, the Trump campaign is still struggling to find their contrast message against Harris. With early voting already underway, time is running out, and this will have a big impact on every other Republican on the ballot.
We then get into some top campaign developments, including far left Democrat candidates catching flack in HD82 and HD51, Harry Benton caught being a hypocrite on the grocery tax in HD97, Republicans and Democrats going up with attack ads in HD45 and SD40, plus we discuss the latest endorsements and campaign involvement from Local 150 and Planned Parenthood.
Each of our guests then give their thoughts on how Republicans battle against the Democrat’s money and infrastructure advantage. And we all shake our heads at how House Republicans can’t seem to let go talking about taxes instead of the issue that is moving votes the most: cost of living.
We close down with some final topics including Steve sharing what he heard from the White Sox organization in their pitch to secure taxpayer funds for a new stadium, while Collin and Chris lament their poor choice in a baseball team.
00:00: Introductions02:28: Vance Wins VP Debate While Trump Still Struggling to Find Contrast with Harris16:37: Democrats Clutching Pearls As Akhras Called Out Over Far Left Ties in HD8221:46: Syed Held Accountable for Anti-Israel Letter in HD5127:32: Benton Caught Being Hypocrite on Grocery Tax in HD9732:20: Reboletti Up with "Tax-and-Spend" Attack Ad on Deuter in HD4536:10: Joyce Goes Up on Broadcast TV in SD40 Race Against Nagel40:00: Schmidt (HD114), McLaughlin (HD52), and Williamson (HD47) Highlight Local 150 Endorsements48:12: Planned Parenthood Announces Endorsements and Targeted Races in Illinois52:11: Democrat v Republican State Party Activities Show Dems Have Big Infrastructure Advantage01:01:15: House Republicans Talking Taxes While Democrats Smartly Focus on Cost of Living01:14:00: Anti-Israel Protestors Target Illinois Treasurer's Children01:20:49: After Historically Awful Season, White Sox Want New Stadium in South Loop01:28:55: OG & Clown of the Week01:35:46: Closing Thoughts

Illinois Democrats All In on Abortion. Will It Work?—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 73

We’re less than 40 days from Election Day by the time you read this. A lot is happening throughout Illinois which will impact the future of our state. We get into the latest issues and topics from the week and break down how Republicans can use them to win in November.
Joining the Smoke-Filled Room are State Senator Craig Wilcox, soon-to-be State Senator Chris Balkema, Lake County GOP Chairman Keith Brin, Cor’s political experts Chris Jackowiak and Michael Butler, and host Collin Corbett.
Democrats are all in on making abortion a center point to their messaging against Republicans, focusing on the issue in their ads, mailers, and messaging to paint Republicans as the “extreme” party. Meanwhile, many Republicans are focused on the issue that matters most to voters: cost-of-living. We discuss in depth.
We then get into our campaign corner where we talk about the races G-PAC and AFP are and aren’t getting involved in, Eric Sorensen’s new TV ad against Joe McGraw in IL-17, how HRO isn’t defending Marty McLaughlin in HD52 at a time when we need to win every seat we can, and an anti-Latoya Greenwood mailer in HD114 which shows the difference in how Democrats and Republicans message.
We close on some issues that need coverage, including how hundreds of children have been sexually assaulted in youth detention centers. How does the Pritzker administration continue to get away with systemic failures within state departments? We close by talking about our permanent Clown of the Week nominee Brandon Johnson had yet another very bad week.
00:00: Introductions02:37: Illinois Democrats All In on Abortion. Will It Work?14:44: Anti-Gun PAC Announces Their Top Illinois House Races27:10: AFP Illinois Ramping Up Campaign Activity35:56: Sorensen Framing McGraw as "Weird" in TV Ad on Prayer in IL-17 Race44:22: Billy Morgan Caught Being Hypocrite in Attacks Against Jackie Haas in HD7949:02: HRO Isn't Defending Marty McLaughlin in HD52. Should They Be?55:32: Anti-Greenwood Mailer in HD114 Shows Difference in How Democrats and Republicans Message01:01:26: Lake and Cook County Republicans Forced to Respond to Mark Robinson NC Drama01:06:19: Hundreds of Children Sexually Abused at State and Cook County Youth Detention Centers01:12:15: If Brandon Johnson Didn't Have Bad Weeks, He'd Have No Weeks at All01:25:17: OG & Clown of the Week01:30:53: Closing Thoughts

What the heck is happening in the Department of Corrections?—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 72

Welcome back to the Smoke-Filled Room and this week, we’re kicking things off with a topic that has been on our list to dive into because it hasn’t been getting the coverage it deserves, and we have an expert joining us to give us the inside scoop.
We’re joined for episode 72 with State Senator Terri Bryant, State Representative Dan Caulkins, Northfield Township GOP Committeeman TJ Brown, Cor’s political experts Michael Butler and Chris Jackowiak, and host Collin Corbett. 
Senator Bryant knows the Illinois Department of Corrections better than any legislator and anyone else we could have on our show to share insight on the mess going on at state prisons across Illinois. It’s been cover up after cover up, and Senator Bryant, who worked for the department for 20 years, sheds the light on what’s really going on. And we all know that if this was happening under a Republican Governor, this story would be front page news.
We then get into the latest on the campaign front: TV ads are ramping up in IL-17, the digital ad war is at full throttle in House Districts, and we breakdown The Illinoize’s top 10 legislative seats for this election and we share our takes on what should’ve been left off the list.
We close out the episode with quick hits on how Illinois Republicans can’t seem to quit talking about taxes, Republicans are losing their way on immigration issues, our own residents list Illinois as the most hated state, and Representative Caulkins brings the heat calling out the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board during our OG & Clown of the Week segment.
00:00: Intro03:40: What the Heck is Going on at the Department of Corrections?21:37: TV Ads Ramping Up in IL-17 Race Between Joe McGraw and Eric Sorensen32:12: Digital Ad War at Full Throttle in House Districts Throughout Illinois43:13: The Illinoize Lists Their Top 10 Legislative Seats Likely to Flip 01:06:14: Don't Ignore Down-Ballot Races in 2024 and Consolidated Elections in 202501:16:00: Teamsters Poll Shows Continued Movement Among Union Households Towards Republicans01:21:17: Talking Taxes is a Drug House Republicans Can't Seem to Quit01:27:00: Republicans Losing Their Way on Immigration Issue01:30:17: Illinois Is the Most Hated State...By Our Own Residents 01:35:39: OG & Clown of the Week01:42:20: Closing Thoughts

What are voters saying at the doors? We have the inside scoop.—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 71

52 days until the election and even fewer until early voting starts. This is when voters are starting to pay attention to what candidates say and do.
Host Collin Corbett has in-depth and detailed strategic conversations on fundraising, paid voter outreach, and messaging with candidate in the tier 1 race for House District 51 Tosi Ufodike, president of Strive Strategy Group Dennis Cook, political consultant Mark Cavers, and Cor’s political experts Chris Jackowiak and Michael Butler.
It’s not often we have a candidate in a tier 1 race join us in the thick of campaign season, so Tosi gives us a unique perspective on what she’s actually hearing from voters when she goes door to door. Just like we’ve been talking about, the majority of voters are complaining about the unaffordable cost-of-living in Illinois.
We then discuss the latest in house and senate races throughout the state. We see Democrats blanketing a message on abortion, but Dennis and Mark lay out how targeting messages in key districts get more swing voters to vote Republican.
We close by having a really good conversation over strategy and tactics candidates can use when fundraising, and end this week’s episode with some quick hits on topics that can put Democrats on the defensive if used effectively.
00:00: Introductions02:25: How Will Trump's Debate Loss Impact Illinois GOP Campaigns?11:18: Harris Joins Illinois Democrats in Talking Like a Republican19:54: Why Should Republicans Statewide be Paying Attention to Tosi Ufodike in HD51? 28:51: What Are Suburban Voters Saying at Doorsteps?34:45: HD104 Race Between Brandun Schweizer and Jarrett Clem Seemingly Under the Radar38:22: GOP Poll in Kevin Schmidt's HD114 Highlights Oppo on Greenwood45:56: Morgan Blaming Haas for High Cost-of-Living in HD79 Despite Dems Being the Super Majority52:49: Democrats Up on TV Attacking Phillip Nagel on Abortion in SD4001:10:11: Democrats Continue Theme of Being Fed Up with Politics in Latest Mailers and Ads01:04:32: As Expected, Democrats Vastly Outspending Republicans in Illinois01:19:49: Stellantis Investing Over $400 Million in Michigan While Belvidere Remains Shuttered01:21:15: Democrats Pushing Chicago and Cook County Takeover of Public Transit01:24:00: Left-Leaning Blog Accidently Admitted Outmigration is Happening01:28:15: OG & Clown of the Week01:34:54: Closing Thoughts

Turning Illinois Red Starts with Winning Union Households—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 70

For most people, Labor Day is a 3-day weekend to close out summer. But for many, Labor Day is just another Monday at work, serving the community. We open today’s episode celebrating American workers.
Sharing their insight and giving their perspective alongside host Collin Corbett are soon-to-be State Senator Li Arellano, Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau, Illinois Republican Party Co-Chairman Aaron Del Mar, and Cor’s political experts Michael Butler and Chris Jackowiak.
As polling and voting has shown, union households align more with Republican values than the far-left progressive values of today’s Democratic Party. Our panel discusses how if we’re going to turn Illinois red, we need to focus on campaigning to these working families. These voters are now in play and the foundation for winning in Illinois.
We close out the episode getting into some political topics as House Republicans and Democrats ramp up mail and digital outreach in targeted districts. Plus, we discuss the latest in HD76, SD40, and HD97. And Keith, Li, and Aaron talk about how they would be the headline story in the nightly news if they pulled what Democrat Kane County Board Chair did to stop her opponents from campaigning against her outside her office.
00:00: Introductions01:57: Celebrating American Workers in Honor of Labor Day07:50: State of Unionization in Illinois12:39: How to Tell the Difference Between a "Good Union" and "Bad Union"23:09: Why Should Republicans Support Unions When So Few Unions Support Republicans?34:39: Do Illinois Democrats Really Support Unions?46:42: Illinois Labor Still Pushing for Public Funding for Sports Stadiums53:30: With the Belvidere Assembly Plant Reopening Delay, Where Is Pritzker?57:04: House Republicans and Democrats Ramp Up Mail and Digital in Targeted Districts01:07:15: GOP Slams Amy Murri Briel in HD7601:10:15: Senate Republicans Up with Video for Phil Nagle Against Patrick Joyce in SD4001:12:32: House Republicans Fighting Back Against Benton Claiming He's Not a Politician in HD9701:15:00: Democrat Kane County Board Chair Creates "First Amendment Area" to Stop Opponents01:20:16: OG & Clown of the Week01:26:53: Closing Thoughts